Weekly report — week commencing 2026-08-17
Generated from the current readings. Archiving writes a permanent, immutable record for this week.
Headline
HOLD
Cycle 70 · Confidence 84% · Top 40% · Bottom 60% · BTC $96,000
Category votes
Valuation60
Holder Behavior79
Liquidity78
Trend Structure70
Institutional Demand84
Derivatives50
Sentiment53
Largest movers this week
| Treasury General Account | 640 | -150517.2% |
| Fed Net Liquidity | 6,120 | +15740.4% |
| 100-Week Moving Average | 1.22 | -4337.1% |
| 50-Week Moving Average | 1.24 | -1594.9% |
| Bull Market Support Band | 1.2 | -896.7% |
| Overnight Reverse Repo | 180 | +99.8% |
| Weekly RSI | 50.4 | -31.0% |
| 10Y Real Yield | 2.41 | +27.4% |
| Chicago Fed NFCI | -0.56 | -21.3% |
| High Yield Credit Spread | 3.1 | +11.3% |
Evidence
- ✓ Global M2 (proxy) improving
- ✓ High Yield Credit Spread in its historical bottom decile
- ✓ Spot ETF Net Flows (20d) improving
- ✓ LTH Net Position Change improving
- ✓ Fed Net Liquidity improving
- ✓ LTH Sell-Side Risk in the lower quartile of its range
- ⚠ 10Y Real Yield rising
- ⚠ NUPL rising
- ⚠ Bollinger %B (Weekly) unfavourable
- ⚠ Fear & Greed Index unfavourable
- ⚠ Open Interest / Market Cap elevated in the upper quartile
AI executive summary
Written from the briefing above. It narrates the evidence; it does not decide.
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