Market health
Seven category gauges. Indicators never vote directly — they vote through their category, and each category votes into the cycle score.
Valuation
Where price sits relative to on-chain cost basis and cycle norms. Identifies the zone.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | 2.1 z | +0.05 | 58 | 9.5 | |
| NUPL | 0.52 ratio | +0.01 | 33 | 9.1 | |
| Realized Price Ratio | 2.2 x | -0.03 | 60 | 8.1 | |
| Puell Multiple | 1.1 x | -0.02 | 70 | 6.3 | |
| MVRV Ratio | 2.1 x | -0.03 | 61 | 6.3 | |
| Reserve Risk | 0 ratio | +0 | 79 | 5.3 | |
| RHODL Ratio | 12,000 ratio | +264 | 74 | 5.5 |
Holder Behavior
What long-term and short-term holders are actually doing with their coins.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTH Net Position Change | 38,000 BTC | -532 | 88 | 7.4 | |
| Exchange BTC Supply | 10.8 % | +0.24 | 80 | 5.8 | |
| Supply by Age (1y+) | 62.5 % | +1.38 | 75 | 4.9 | |
| SOPR | 1.01 ratio | -0.01 | 63 | 5.3 | |
| LTH Sell-Side Risk | 0 ratio | -0 | 88 | 5.3 | |
| Coin Days Destroyed | 34 index | +0.75 | 77 | 4.2 |
Liquidity
Macro backdrop: money supply, the dollar, real yields, credit and Fed balance sheet.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global M2 (proxy) | 2.6 % 3m | -0.04 | 100 | 6.2 | |
| Fed Net Liquidity | 6,120 $bn | +963,310 | 87 | 6.5 | |
| Broad Dollar Index | 118.4 index | -0.5 | 76 | 5.8 | |
| 10Y Real Yield | 2.41 % | +0.66 | 5 | 5.8 | |
| High Yield Credit Spread | 3.1 % | +0.35 | 97 | 6.3 | |
| US M2 | 23,155 $bn | +1,005 | 100 | 3 | |
| Chicago Fed NFCI | -0.56 index | -0.12 | 100 | 3.5 | |
| Treasury General Account | 640 $bn | -963,310 | 65 | 2.4 | |
| Overnight Reverse Repo | 180 $bn | +179.68 | 87 | 2.4 |
Trend Structure
Technical cycle structure. Confirms or invalidates the primary case.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Market Support Band | 1.2 % vs band | -10.8 | 54 | 4.9 | |
| 200-Week Moving Average | 118 % above | -1.65 | 63 | 5 | |
| Weekly RSI | 50.4 index | -15.6 | 62 | 4 | |
| 100-Week Moving Average | 1.22 % above | -52.78 | 100 | 3.2 | |
| 50-Week Moving Average | 1.24 % above | -19.76 | 98 | 3.2 | |
| Pi Cycle Top | 0.74 ratio | -0.01 | 72 | 3.4 | |
| Supertrend (Weekly) | 1 state | -0.01 | 100 | 2.5 | |
| Bollinger %B (Weekly) | 0.77 %B | +0.05 | 20 | 2.4 |
Institutional Demand
Where marginal capital is going: ETFs, stablecoins, corporate treasuries.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot ETF Net Flows (20d) | 2.4 $bn | -0.03 | 90 | 7.1 | |
| Stablecoin Supply Ratio | 11.5 ratio | +0.25 | 71 | 4 | |
| Corporate Treasury Purchases | 32,000 BTC/qtr | -448 | 87 | 3 | |
| Exchange Stablecoin Supply | 42 $bn | +0.92 | 85 | 3.1 |
Derivatives
Whether leverage or spot demand is driving price.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Interest / Market Cap | 2.7 % | +0.06 | 43 | 4.2 | |
| Funding Rate (7d avg) | 0.02 % | -0 | 49 | 4.3 | |
| Futures Basis (3m annualised) | 11.5 % | -0.16 | 54 | 3.3 | |
| Options Put/Call Ratio | 0.95 ratio | +0.02 | 58 | 1.7 | |
| Long/Short Liquidation Skew | 1.15 ratio | +0.03 | 56 | 1.8 |
Sentiment
Retail psychology and attention. Influences confidence, never overrides evidence.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index | 62 index | -6 | 30 | 2.3 | |
| Google Trends | 31 index | -0.43 | 60 | 1.6 | |
| X Activity | 33 index | -0.46 | 55 | 1.1 | |
| Wikipedia Views | 28 index | -0.39 | 68 | 1.1 | |
| YouTube Activity | 26 index | -0.36 | 73 | 1.1 |