Market health
Seven category gauges. Indicators never vote directly — they vote through their category, and each category votes into the cycle score.
Valuation
Where price sits relative to on-chain cost basis and cycle norms. Identifies the zone.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUPLstale | 0.52 ratio | +0.01 | 33 | 9.1 | |
| MVRV Z-Scorestale | 2.1 z | +0.05 | 58 | 9.5 | |
| Realized Price Ratiostale | 2.2 x | -0.03 | 60 | 8.1 | |
| MVRV Ratiostale | 2.1 x | -0.03 | 61 | 6.3 | |
| Puell Multiplestale | 1.1 x | -0.02 | 70 | 6.3 | |
| Reserve Riskstale | 0 ratio | +0 | 79 | 5.3 | |
| RHODL Ratiostale | 12,000 ratio | +264 | 74 | 5.5 |
Holder Behavior
What long-term and short-term holders are actually doing with their coins.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTH Net Position Changestale | 38,000 BTC | -532 | 88 | 7.4 | |
| Exchange BTC Supplystale | 10.8 % | +0.24 | 80 | 5.8 | |
| Supply by Age (1y+)stale | 62.5 % | +1.38 | 75 | 4.9 | |
| SOPRstale | 1.01 ratio | -0.01 | 63 | 5.3 | |
| LTH Sell-Side Riskstale | 0 ratio | -0 | 88 | 5.3 | |
| Coin Days Destroyedstale | 34 index | +0.75 | 77 | 4.2 |
Liquidity
Macro backdrop: money supply, the dollar, real yields, credit and Fed balance sheet.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global M2 (proxy)stale | 2.6 % 3m | -0.04 | 100 | 6.2 | |
| Fed Net Liquiditystale | 5,780 $bn | -16.04 | 30 | 6.5 | |
| Broad Dollar Indexstale | 118.75 index | -0.15 | 73 | 5.8 | |
| 10Y Real Yieldstale | 2.44 % | +0.03 | 3 | 5.8 | |
| High Yield Credit Spreadstale | 2.65 % | -0.08 | 100 | 6.3 | |
| US M2stale | 23,218 $bn | +62.8 | 100 | 3 | |
| Chicago Fed NFCIstale | -0.56 index | +0 | 100 | 3.5 | |
| Overnight Reverse Repostale | 0.53 $bn | +0.21 | 100 | 2.4 | |
| Treasury General Accountstale | 950.74 $bn | -13.21 | 0 | 2.4 |
Trend Structure
Technical cycle structure. Confirms or invalidates the primary case.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-Week Moving Averagestale | 1.13 % above | -116.87 | 100 | 5 | |
| Bull Market Support Bandstale | 1.14 % vs band | -0.07 | 54 | 4.9 | |
| Weekly RSIstale | 65.6 index | +15.2 | 24 | 4 | |
| 100-Week Moving Averagestale | 1.18 % above | -0.04 | 100 | 3.2 | |
| 50-Week Moving Averagestale | 1.18 % above | -0.06 | 98 | 3.2 | |
| Pi Cycle Topstale | 0.74 ratio | -0.01 | 72 | 3.4 | |
| Bollinger %B (Weekly)stale | 0.85 %B | +0.08 | 11 | 2.4 | |
| Supertrend (Weekly)stale | 1 state | -0.01 | 100 | 2.5 |
Institutional Demand
Where marginal capital is going: ETFs, stablecoins, corporate treasuries.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot ETF Net Flows (20d)stale | 2.4 $bn | -0.03 | 90 | 7.1 | |
| Stablecoin Supply Ratiostale | 11.5 ratio | +0.25 | 71 | 4 | |
| Corporate Treasury Purchasesstale | 32,000 BTC/qtr | -448 | 87 | 3 | |
| Exchange Stablecoin Supplystale | 42 $bn | +0.92 | 85 | 3.1 |
Derivatives
Whether leverage or spot demand is driving price.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Interest / Market Capstale | 2.7 % | +0.06 | 43 | 4.2 | |
| Funding Rate (7d avg)stale | 0.02 % | -0 | 49 | 4.3 | |
| Futures Basis (3m annualised)stale | 11.5 % | -0.16 | 54 | 3.3 | |
| Long/Short Liquidation Skewstale | 1.15 ratio | +0.03 | 56 | 1.8 | |
| Options Put/Call Ratiostale | 0.95 ratio | +0.02 | 58 | 1.7 |
Sentiment
Retail psychology and attention. Influences confidence, never overrides evidence.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index | 53 index | -2 | 45 | 2.3 | |
| Google Trendsstale | 31 index | -0.43 | 60 | 1.6 | |
| Wikipedia Viewsstale | 28 index | -0.39 | 68 | 1.1 | |
| YouTube Activitystale | 26 index | -0.36 | 73 | 1.1 | |
| X Activitystale | 33 index | -0.46 | 55 | 1.1 |
Adoption
Network adoption growth: usage, security spend and economic throughput measured as 30-day versus 365-day growth ratios.
| Indicator | Current | Δ 1w | Score | Contribution | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transfer Volume Growth | 1.13 ratio | +0 | 95 | 4.1 | |
| Active Addresses Growth | 1 ratio | +0 | 52 | 4.3 | |
| Hash Rate Growth | 0.99 ratio | +0 | 45 | 3.5 |