Investment Committee
One recommendation, derived from every category vote. Each number is traceable to an indicator, a threshold and a weight — change the methodology in Admin and the conclusion changes with it.
BTC / USD
$96,000
Current recommendation
HOLD
Confidence
84%
Calculated separately from the cycle score.
Overall cycle score
70/100
Top probability
40%
Bottom probability
60%
Last week: 81.4
Change: -11.4
Why the system reached this conclusion
Bullish evidence
Ranked by weighted contribution to the score.
- ✓Global M2 (proxy) improvinghigh · strength 5
- ✓High Yield Credit Spread in its historical bottom decilehigh · strength 5
- ✓Spot ETF Net Flows (20d) improvinghigh · strength 4
- ✓LTH Net Position Change improvinghigh · strength 4
- ✓Fed Net Liquidity improvinghigh · strength 4
- ✓LTH Sell-Side Risk in the lower quartile of its rangehigh · strength 4
Risk evidence
Ranked by weighted drag on the score.
- ⚠10Y Real Yield risinghigh · strength 5
- ⚠NUPL risinghigh · strength 2
- ⚠Bollinger %B (Weekly) unfavourablemedium · strength 3
- ⚠Fear & Greed Index unfavourablemedium · strength 2
- ⚠Open Interest / Market Cap elevated in the upper quartilehigh · strength 1
Market health
Probability engines
Run separately from the cycle score, on their own configurable inputs.
Top probability40%
Inputs: mvrv_z, nupl, puell, rhodl, rsi_w, funding, open_interest, lth_sell_risk
Bottom probability60%
Inputs: mvrv_z, realized_price, nupl, ma200w, puell, funding, fed_liquidity
Confidence inputs
Weights configurable in Admin → Weights.
| Category agreement | 72 | ×0.35 |
| Data completeness | 100 | ×0.25 |
| Indicator reliability | 72 | ×0.15 |
| Data freshness | 100 | ×0.15 |
| Signal consistency | 75 | ×0.1 |
Data health
100%
44 of 44 indicators current
Stale readings
0
older than 21 days
Categories voting
7
of seven
Library size
44
tracked indicators