Investment Committee
One recommendation, derived from every category vote. Each number is traceable to an indicator, a threshold and a weight — change the methodology in Admin and the conclusion changes with it.
Calculated separately from the cycle score.
Why the system reached this conclusion
Bullish evidence
Ranked by weighted contribution to the score.
- ✓Transfer Volume Growth improvinglow · strength 4
Risk evidence
Ranked by weighted drag on the score.
- No indicator is currently below its bearish threshold.
Market health
Predicted vs actual bitcoin price
The engine's weekly forward call plotted against what bitcoin actually did. Full log on Performance.
Network adoption growth
Active addresses, hash rate and transfer volume as 30-day vs 365-day average ratios, resampled weekly. Above 1.0 means the network is growing.
Probability engines
Run separately from the cycle score, on their own configurable inputs.
Inputs: mvrv_z, nupl, puell, rhodl, rsi_w, funding, open_interest, lth_sell_risk
Inputs: mvrv_z, realized_price, nupl, ma200w, puell, funding, fed_liquidity
Confidence inputs
Weights configurable in Admin → Weights.
| Category agreement | 77 | ×0.35 |
| Data completeness | 9 | ×0.25 |
| Indicator reliability | 72 | ×0.15 |
| Data freshness | 100 | ×0.15 |
| Signal consistency | 100 | ×0.1 |