Performance tracking
The system is only worth trusting if its recommendations preceded the returns it implied. Forward returns are measured from the bitcoin price at the time of each recommendation. The current track record is a seeded demonstration set — live records begin accumulating from the first archived week.
Recommendations scored
6
Hit rate
67%
Avg forward 3m return
—
Accumulate vs defensive (3m)
— / —
Predictions resolved
12
Direction hit rate
58%
Avg absolute price error
4.92%
Open call
$79,760 by 2026-10-19
Prediction vs actual bitcoin price
Each week the engine's cycle score and top/bottom probabilities are converted into a forward price call and stored. The dashed line is what we predicted, the solid line is what bitcoin actually did. Latest actual point uses the live spot price ($81,795).
Prediction log
| Called | Target week | Stance | Score | Expected | Predicted | Actual | Error | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-19 | HOLD | 66.2 | +2.4% | $79,760 | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-12 | HOLD | 64.1 | +2.1% | $79,564 | — | — | open |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-10-05 | HOLD | 62.6 | +1.9% | $79,423 | — | — | open |
| 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-28 | HOLD | 62.4 | +1.9% | $79,405 | — | — | open |
| 2026-09-14 | 2026-09-21 | HOLD | 62.4 | +1.9% | $79,405 | — | — | open |
| 2026-09-07 | 2026-09-14 | HOLD | 62.3 | +1.9% | $79,395 | — | — | open |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | HOLD | 67.9 | +2.5% | $81,336 | — | — | open |
| 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-31 | HOLD | 67.5 | +2.5% | $81,298 | $77,918 | 4.34% | wrong |
| 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-24 | HOLD | 67.5 | +2.5% | $64,418 | $77,678 | -17.07% | correct |
| 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-17 | ACCUMULATE | 84.2 | +3.3% | $66,978 | $62,853 | 6.56% | wrong |
| 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | ACCUMULATE | 81.6 | +3.0% | $65,397 | $64,861 | 0.83% | correct |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | HOLD | 79.4 | +2.9% | $67,203 | $63,466 | 5.89% | wrong |
| 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-27 | HOLD | 76.8 | +2.7% | $66,401 | $65,310 | 1.67% | correct |
| 2026-07-13 | 2026-07-20 | HOLD | 69.5 | +1.9% | $64,951 | $64,670 | 0.43% | correct |
| 2026-07-06 | 2026-07-13 | HOLD | 71.2 | +2.2% | $64,975 | $63,747 | 1.93% | correct |
| 2026-06-29 | 2026-07-06 | HOLD | 66.4 | +1.7% | $60,505 | $63,586 | -4.85% | correct |
| 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-29 | HOLD | 60.8 | +1.1% | $63,942 | $59,495 | 7.48% | wrong |
| 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-22 | HOLD | 62.1 | +1.3% | $66,585 | $63,255 | 5.26% | wrong |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | TRIM | 58.4 | +1.0% | $63,892 | $65,709 | -2.77% | correct |
By stance
| Recommendation | N | Avg 3m | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRIM | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| HOLD | 5 | — | 4/5 |
Every recorded recommendation
| Week | Recommendation | Score | BTC | 1m | 3m | 6m | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | TRIM | 58.4 | $61,480 | +4.3% | — | — | wrong |
| 2026-06-18 | HOLD | 62.1 | $64,445 | -0.8% | — | — | correct |
| 2026-06-25 | HOLD | 60.8 | $60,990 | +5.1% | — | — | correct |
| 2026-07-02 | HOLD | 66.4 | $59,968 | +4.9% | — | — | correct |
| 2026-07-09 | HOLD | 71.2 | $62,247 | +4.2% | — | — | correct |
| 2026-07-16 | HOLD | 69.5 | $64,717 | -2.7% | — | — | wrong |